Summer Season: Half Over, Half-Baked

By RICHARD NATALE

July 8, 2000 12 AM PT

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SPECIAL TO THE TIMES

It hasn’t been a summer to warm studio execs’ hearts. The movie season (which begins in early May and ends around Labor Day) is half over, with only two genuine blockbusters “M:I-2” and “Gladiator” (and possibly “The Perfect Storm”), compared to six last year at this time: the “Star Wars” prequel and “Austin Powers” sequel, “Notting Hill,” “The Mummy,” “Big Daddy” and “Tarzan.”

To be sure, there are some big hits this year: “Big Momma’s House” and “Chicken Run” are definite winners, with “Road Trip,” “Shaft,” “Me, Myself & Irene” and possibly “The Patriot” all holding up well--though, in the case of “Irene” and “Patriot,” below expectations. But these glass-half-full results are not promising for what is the most important moviegoing season for the studios.

All of this season’s hits so far won’t come anywhere near the collective revenue of last year’s top six films, which generated more than $1 billion in ticket sales. And barring a major second-half surprise (like “The Sixth Sense” or “The Blair Witch Project” in 1999), the summer box office almost certainly will fall well short of last year.

Perhaps most troubling of all for Hollywood, summer’s current top three films each cost more than $100 million, whereas only two out of last year’s six big titles cost that much: “Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace” and “Tarzan.” That will have an effect on the bottom line at all the major studios and impact the movies we see in the next few summers.

The second half of the season looks to be a nail-biter. Among the likely hits are “Disney’s The Kid” and “Scary Movie,” both of which opened Friday, and “Nutty Professor II: The Klumps” with Eddie Murphy. Other comedies like “Bedazzled,” with Brendan Fraser and Elizabeth Hurley, also look promising. But there are high-profile vehicles including “X-Men,” (next Friday), “What Lies Beneath” (July 21) and “The Hollow Man” (Aug. 4) that have to do well for the summer season to have a real chance of ending up on a high note.

In talking about the flagging fortunes of summer so far, executives are using the same tired cliches. Below are some of our favorites along with some suggested new ones to get us through the next summer:

Old cliche: “It may be too sophisticated for general audiences.”

Such is the state of movies that even critics were adding this proviso to their upbeat reviews for “Chicken Run.” The same was said about past summer hits that displayed originality and/or a modicum of intelligence such as “The Truman Show,” “The Sixth Sense” and “Saving Private Ryan.” And when these movies succeeded, everyone expressed surprise, as if they’d discovered their 6-year-old reading Nietzsche.

Suggested new cliche: “Don’t underestimate audiences.”

Old cliche: “But it grossed more than $100 million.”

Video store owners may be impressed by that statistic, but given inflated ticket prices, which rose above the $5 mark (on average) for the first time, and the increased costs of production and marketing, $100 million is significant only for a film that cost less than one-third of that, like “Big Momma’s House.” “Road Trip” will probably gross only about $70 million, and yet it may end up more profitable than “The Patriot,” which should reach $100 million but cost more than that to make (not to mention marketing costs). Even though it will probably take in about $140 million, the price tag on Disney’s “Dinosaur” was more than $200 million when marketing is factored in. Even with the well-oiled Disney merchandising and home video machine, the movie will not be one of the studio’s more profitable ventures.

Suggested new cliche: “$100 million ain’t what it used to be.”

Old cliche: “Audiences want escapism in the summer.”

One of the most tired cliches of all. “Escapism” is not a synonym for “mindless.” While the relative merits of “Gladiator,” “The Perfect Storm,” “The Patriot” and “Chicken Run” can be debated, there’s no question that craftsmanship, originality and intelligence went into all those films. And they are all succeeding. Those were the three biggest films over the Fourth of July holiday, with a combined gross of more than $120 million over the five-day period, demonstrating a hunger for movies that entertain and challenge audience expectations. But none is likely to spawn a sequel or an amusement park ride. (Though we could be wrong here. Remember the “Earthquake” and “Backdraft” theme park attractions? How about a “Perfect Storm” flume ride?)

Suggested new cliche: “Thinking won’t wilt you in the heat.”

Old cliche: “There’s too much emphasis on numbers.”

Industry doublespeak for “kill the messenger.” When films don’t perform at the box office (business is down about 5% from last summer), executives decry news reports about budgets and grosses--as if the hordes who were dying to see “Battlefield Earth” and “I Dreamed of Africa” changed their minds because they heard the movies had not been well attended on the 11 o’clock news. When their movies do business, these same executives fall all over themselves with dubious records (the second-best opening ever for a non-sequel on a non-holiday Wednesday in a month starting with the letter M) and big advertising banners (the No. 1 comedy in America). Remember: The media report what the audience has already decided, not the other way around.

Suggested new cliche: “The numbers tell the story.”

Old cliche: “It was mis-marketed.”

Outside the motion picture industry, there is no such word as “mis-marketed.” But executives are loath to use the term “poorly marketed” for the same reason politicians rarely call someone a liar directly. Whatever the language, it’s doubtful that a better marketing campaign could have boosted the fortunes of movies like “Titan A.E.” or “Rocky and Bullwinkle,” to name two of the summer’s biggest losers. The backlash, of course, will be construed as audiences turning their backs on animated films, instead of rejecting poorly conceived family entertainment.

Which doesn’t mean that marketing can’t help. DreamWorks, for example, managed to sell iffy propositions like “Gladiator” and “Chicken Run,” and even a Woody Allen movie, “Small Time Crooks.”

Similarly, Warner Bros. effectively touted the special-effects angle to sell a difficult and downbeat drama like “The Perfect Storm.”

But then there was the comedy/western “Shanghai Noon,” which tested so well, according to a Disney source, that the studio moved it from midsummer to Memorial Day--right in the path of “M:I-2.” The advertising failed to get enough people into theaters to generate a word-of-mouth snowball, and the film did only moderate business. It may have been a hard sell, but certainly no harder than “Chicken Run.”

Suggested new cliche: “Marketing is great, but a good movie is better.”

Old cliche: “Timing is everything.”

Timing, timing, timing is the industry’s equivalent of the real estate maxim about location. “Gladiator” might not have been as big a hit if it had been released in the middle of the summer. The head-start on the season clearly separated the film from the pack the same way “The Mummy,” “Deep Impact” and “Twister” succeeded in previous summers. But as with “Shanghai Noon,” “Dinosaur” might have fared better if it had opened in late June, when Disney traditionally debuts its animated family features. It would have been easier to maintain the strong opening weekend (almost $40 million) momentum.

Disney decided to pull it out ahead of the other animated movies scheduled for June, but in hindsight, they need not have worried about “Titan A.E.” or “Rocky and Bullwinkle.” Disney even managed to turn a plus into a minus with its 35-millimeter release of “Fantasia 2000.” The film broke records in its Imax run earlier this year, grossing $50 million in just 75 theaters. But something went terribly wrong when it was fanned out to 1,300 theaters for a four-week run, and it played more like an ill-timed reissue.

Suggested new cliche: “Our greed got in the way of our better judgment.”

Old cliche: “But the tracking was great.”

As the Fourth of July weekend demonstrated, predicting attendance patterns is far from a science. The studios track awareness and the desire of an audience to see a particular movie at different stages prior to release. Right up until their debuts, “Patriot” and “Perfect Storm” were neck and neck, with the former having the edge because it starred Mel Gibson. But “Storm” ended up doing nearly twice as much business.

The weekend before it opened, “Chicken Run” was barely tracking, meaning that audiencesmay have heard of the film (through trailers, TV ads) but were expressing no great desire to see it. Yet “Chicken Run” debuted better than any family movie this summer except for “Dinosaur.” It is expected to eventually surpass “Me, Myself & Irene,” a big star vehicle (Jim Carrey). Like test marketing, tracking is only a bit more precise than an office football pool.

Suggested new cliche: “The Ouija board said it was going to be a big hit.”

Old cliche: “Don’t forget, we had an R rating.”

Along with marketing and the media, studios are now blaming the enforcement of the R rating for box office shortfalls. But that rating didn’t seem to slow down “Gladiator,” for example.

For “Patriot,” the R rating may not have been as big a drawback as the Revolutionary War setting. “Saving Private Ryan,” “Beverly Hills Cop” and “Terminator 2” are examples of R-rated films that crossed $200 million. If you build a movie people want to see, they will come, whatever the rating.

Suggested new cliche: “We’re grasping at straws here.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Midterm Report Card

Here’s how the major releases have fared so far in the summer movie sweepstakes.

Valedictorians

“M:I-2”: $200 million

“Gladiator”: $172 million

With Honors

“The Perfect Storm”: $75 million (1 week)

” Chicken Run”: $50 million (2 weeks)

“Road Trip”: $65.5 million

Better Than Average